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Prediction markets from first principles — mechanics, costs and trade-offs, written for people who want to understand before they trade.

Updated Aug 14, 2026 · 9 min read

What are prediction markets? A plain-English introduction

How event contracts work, why prices behave like probabilities, what research says about their accuracy, and the practical risks to understand before trading.

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Coming soon

· How prediction-market fees actually work
· Reading an order book: spreads, depth and slippage
· Why prices differ across platforms (and when it matters)
· Prediction markets vs sports betting: what's the difference?